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This research determines the impacts of COVID-19 US on crawfish production and consumption for 2020 and 2021 using an Equilibrium Displacement Model. In the US, crawfish is one of the seafood commodities where most production is consumed by domestic consumers (7% of domestic consumption is from imports). Crawfish and rice are complementary. Therefore, the impacts of COVID-19 on crawfish consumption simultaneously influence rice production and crawfish producers and consumers. In the first year of COVID-19 (2020), the reduction in crawfish retail demand caused negative effects on final consumers and producers. However, crawfish consumption recovered significantly in the second year (2021), which could compensate for the loss in 2020. Overall, consumer and producer gains ranged from $549 to $626 million if the COVID-19 pandemic only impacted retail consumption. However, in 2021, the increase in production costs due to higher oil/diesel prices and other input prices caused the farm supply to decrease. As a result, total welfare gains ranged from $200 to $228 million. If the demand in 2021 did not increase, but the crawfish farm supply decreased, consumer and producer losses ranged from $929 to $1045 million. Overall, the total effects of COVID-19 on consumers and producers for 2020 and 2021 depend on its effects in 2021. If the demand in 2021 increased following the decrease in farm supply, consumers and producers would benefit from the shocks of COVID-19 due to higher post-COVID-19 demand.
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This volume presents a broad sweep of modern economic history underpinning aid, trade, development and globalization in the last half century and the salient challenges facing the global community today. The author draws on his long years as an academic and development practitioner to recommend what needs to be done to cope with the backsliding of the fight against global poverty, fractured geopolitics and the threats to the multilateral economic order. The new, revised edition analyses how unilateralism, rising protectionism and the Covid-19 pandemic seriously threaten global sustainable development. It concludes with recommendations on the policy changes needed to make globalization more equitable and development more sustainable. This book will be of interest to researchers and students of economic development and economic history, as well as all those concerned about global inequality and sustainability. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.
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The paper presents the reaction of the Romanian cereal market to the disruption of trade flows caused by certain shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which lead to changes with high impact on the functioning of this market, representing an important test for the resilience of the sector. Due to trade liberalization in global markets, including agri-food markets, the competitiveness of exports has become increasingly important, contributing to the creation of the country's competitive advantage. Any restrictions to trade in agri-food products can distort trade flows, and this disruption will have an impact on supply and prices. Maintaining a balance between imports and exports is essential to ensure domestic market stability. International trade in agri-food products plays an important role in global food security. The results show that Romania mainly exports unprocessed agricultural products, with cereals having the largest share in the export structure, cereal supply is dependent on climate change, yet it is one of the products with the lowest volatility. The cereal market shows a more elastic reaction to price responses, even though demand for staple foods is generally inelastic.
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PurposeThis study analyses how latent variables: environmental hostility, entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities are demonstrated in practice during the COVID-19 pandemic. Coming from mixed-method research, which is an explanatory sequential research design;this paper aims to provide only the qualitative, practical manifestations and validations of the variables previously tested and analysed quantitatively.Design/methodology/approachA case study approach was used whereby open-ended, semi-structured series of interviews was conducted to extract narratives from two owner–managers of medium-scale manufacturer-exporter agro-processing firms in the Philippines. Thematic analysis using deductive reasoning was used to analyse the collected narratives.FindingsThe analysis showed qualitative evidence of a possible intervention of entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities between the effects of the hostile environment brought about by the pandemic on the firms' export performance. In addition, organisational resilience was observed to possibly moderate the relationship between the firm's entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities. Resilience takes time (years) to develop;with an entrepreneurial behaviour, a continuous enhancement and acquisition of resources, capabilities, knowledge reflects a robust and adaptive organisation during adversity.Social implicationsThe role of education and research institutions was highlighted in the development of dynamic capabilities of firms. The entrepreneurial resilience, however, reflects the individual characteristic of the owner–managers that manifests in the firm's overall posture toward the overall goal of protecting the industry from its downfall.Originality/valueQualitative evidences composed of direct experiences from key informants served valuable and contextual (Philippine agro-processing industry) validations to the theoretical relationships of variables being analysed.
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The US military, intelligence, and diplomatic communities have overlooked a key vulnerability in their assessment of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan- Taiwan's growing reliance on agricultural imports and its food stocks (except for rice) that could endure trade disruptions for only six months. This article assesses Taiwan's agricultural sector and its ability to feed the country's population if food imports and production are disrupted;identifies the food products that should be prioritized in resupply operations, based on Taiwan's nutritional needs and domestic food production;and outlines the required logistical assets. These findings underscore the urgency for US military planners to develop long-term logistical solutions for this complex strategic issue.
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Bangladesh imports roughly 98% of cotton from abroad to produce fabric or yarn (USDA 2020. Cotton and Products Update. Bangladesh. Also available at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cotton%20and%20Products%20Update_Dhaka_Bangladesh_11-30-2020). The production of textiles in Bangladesh depends on the price of raw material, the demand for garment products in the importing countries, smooth supply chain management, and the domestic supply of cheap garment laborers. The global pandemic of COVID-19 disrupted the supply chain of almost all physical goods and services, including textiles. It caused the price of textiles to fall due to a drop in worldwide demand, and increased the marginal cost of textile production due to supply chain interruptions. This paper shows how the decline in the demand for garments, coupled with an increase in cost, shrinks the producer welfare of textile manufacturing and garment exports of the small producing country, Bangladesh.
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Seafood is the food group with the highest share traded, and the U.S. is the world's largest seafood importer, importing 79% of the seafood consumed. Hence, a study examining the impacts of the measures to contain COVID-19 on U.S. seafood imports will not only show how U.S. seafood availability has been affected, but will also give strong indications of how resiliently the global seafood markets have worked through the pandemic. We find that U.S. imports of seafood actually increased in 2020 and 2021, suggesting supply chains were able to adapt to potential disruptions. Moreover, for the 14 largest product forms imported to the U.S., there are no strong price movements. Given that there is a global market for most species groups, this adaption also suggests that the markets have worked quite well beyond the U.S. Hence, while there have undoubtedly been market shocks associated with the COVID-19 measures such as the reduction in demand from the restaurant sector and the increased sales in the retail sector, opportunities seem to balance out challenges, and the supply chains for seafood to the U.S. have been highly resilient.
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The COVID-19 crisis disrupted the economic life of the entire world and caused various disturbances at different levels in economies and societies. Consequently, the study of the economic impact of the health crisis became necessary to identify the influences that the health crisis had on numerous activities, including economic ones. There are calls for more studies to be conducted about the effects of COVID-19 at different levels so that lessons can be learned. The present paper answers these calls and focuses on the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on international trade at the country level by investigating two European countries, Romania and Poland. First, it analyzes the macro-level context of the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, a regression methodology is employed to measure the impact of the COVID-19 burden (which includes the number of cases and the number of deaths related to COVID-19) on the export and import flows in Romania and Poland. The investigation refers to the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020–2021, which were the most significant. The results of the regression analysis showed that international trade was affected by the COVID-19 burden in the two countries, but the influences were different in the two countries. Exports and imports in Poland were more affected by COVID-19 than exports and imports in Romania. COVID-19 also had a higher impact on the import than the export flows in both countries during the period considered. The negative assumed relationships between COVID-19 burden and international trade flows were not verified in these specific country cases. This paper provides more evidence about the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, contributing to a better understanding of the economic effects of health crises in general.
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Oilseeds are grown mainly for the extraction of vegetable oils and for its by-products needed in livestock feed and in other industrial uses. The oils obtained from them are becoming a staple food used in daily cooking in several countries, and as a result the world demand is constantly increasing. This situation, combined with the exponential increase in the world population and other cyclical factors, is leading to a surge pricing, especially in importing countries. This increase in prices is fueled by soaring oil prices and disruption in supplies following Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea. Morocco is directly impacted by these fluctuations given that the country imports almost its total needs in vegetable oils, oilseeds and meals. The high dependence on imported vegetable oils and oilseed products has a detrimental effect on the economy of Morocco and weighs heavily on the country's trade balance. Considering their increasingly important role in society, the development of a local oilseed sector to reduce Morocco's dependence on imports and cope with the vagaries of global markets has never been more topical in the current context of sustainable agriculture and food sovereignty.
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Agricultural trade in India has recently experienced significant changes as a result of global crisis. The years 2021 and 2022 saw record exports ($50.2 billion) and imports ($32.4 billion). The resulting surplus of $17.8 billion was significantly lower than the surplus of $27.7 billion in the previous record-breaking export year 2013–14. Covid pandemic and Russia Ukraine war had a positive influence on the record exports from India. But the greater increase in imports has partially offset the remarkable expansion in exports. In this context, an attempt has been made to examine the causes of this pattern in India's export of agricultural produces. The study in this regard is significant because, aside from software services, this is one industry in which India has some comparative advantage. The nation must prioritise a stable trade policy, especially for those goods having highest trade potential.
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[...]the UK meets more of its food needs, the country risks having potentially counterfeit food imports and disrupted supply chains. The book describes relevant aspects of British food history, defines terms, lists foods imported and exported, measures freight shipped through UK airports, defines greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and crop production, documents food price trends, gives feed conversion rates for food animals, lists advertising spending by major food companies, explains water rights, and states how much land is owned by the British aristocracy, corporations, and Crown. Lang was a member of the EAT-Lancet Commission and he calls on the UK Government to adopt the Commission's Great Food Transformation recommendations to improve public health, the environment, food citizenship, wage scales, and democratic accountability, and to redistribute power in the food system.
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Su, B.;Guan, C.;An, Q., and Wang, Q., 2020. Analysis and countermeasures of the influence of COVID-19 on the commodity category of port export in China: Taking Shanghai Port as an example. In: Liu, X. and Zhao, L. (eds.), Today's Modern Coastal Society: Technical and Sociological Aspects of Coastal Research. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 111, pp. 298–301. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Since the end of 2019, the novel coronavirus has spread rapidly, which has affected the economy, social interaction, and foreign trade, both in China and around the world. Import and export trade has become an organic part of China's national economy. Import and export trade accounts for nearly 35% of the national economy, which is a major part of China's economic growth. This article takes Shanghai Port as an example, collecting and analyzing the exporters of Shanghai Port in China from January to May 2020. Compared with the relevant data of the same period in 2019, this article discusses the major commodity categories that are affected by the epidemic situation in the export trade volume of Shanghai Port, giving countermeasures according to the influence situation in order to stabilize the quantity of this category in the future and reduce the risk of lower port trade volume of the export commodity categories affected by public health emergencies in China's port trade. At the same time, some suggestions and countermeasures are given to the ecological environment problems affecting the sustainable development of ports.
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PurposeThis study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.FindingsThe hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors' services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.Originality/valueThe study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.
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This study examined the relationship between energy imports, energy prices, exchange rate, and policy uncertainty over different time-frequency and across various quantiles by employing the wavelet quantile correlation. The findings suggest that the relationship changes over different time-frequencies and across various quantiles. Moreover, during the COVID-19 to neo-normal period, exchange rate and geopolitical risk exhibit a relatively stronger relationship than energy prices and economic policy uncertainty at both lower and higher frequencies across quantiles. Further, the findings suggest that to reduce energy imports, policymakers should adopt different strategies for both shorter and longer time-horizons.
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Through some empirical studies, the flow of FDI and trade openness have proven to support economic growth in developing countries. This paper examines the significance of FDI and trade openness in five African countries (Ghana, Morocco, Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia). The study employed the panel data analysis method using data from the World Bank for the period 1994-2019 for the five selected countries. The result from the Random effect model indicated that FDI positively supports growth, whereas trade openness harms economic growth in these countries. The outcome further revealed that Uganda enjoys more significance than the other countries using the countries' dummies through the pooled model estimation. We recommend that various governments focus more on exports, reduce imports, attract more FDI through incentives, and create a regulatory environment that is friendly to FDI.
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The purpose of this research is to study the changes in the market structure of China's pulp and paper product imports. In particular, the import trade environment and market layout of Chinese pulp and paper products have changed under the international context of the coronavirus pandemic and the Sino-US trade dispute and the domestic policy context of zero imports of Chinese waste paper. This study attempts to fill the gap regarding the influencing factors of market structure, while contributing new ideas on China's trade in pulp and paper products. Based on pulp and paper product import and export trade data from 2005 to 2021, a trade gravity model was used to explore the changes in the share of China's trade partners for pulp and paper product imports and their influencing factors. The results indicated that the outbreak of COVID-19 led to a significant increase in China's imports of packaging paper products, bringing about an increase in Indonesia's status as a partner in China's pulp and paper product trade. The US-China trade dispute had an impact on pulp and paper product trade between the two countries, with China's tax countermeasures causing the US to lose its status as a trading partner in China for pulp and paper product imports. The center of gravity for paper product imports has moved from the US and Japan to Indonesia and Russia. The restrictions on waste paper imports have shifted the focus of China's paper raw material imports, with the US no longer being the main importer of China's paper raw materials. Specifically, the main importers of wood pulp are Brazil and Chile, while the main importers of waste paper pulp are Thailand and Malaysia. In the future, China needs to continuously strengthen dialogue with the United States to resolve trade disputes and create a favorable environment for trade in pulp and paper products. At the same time, China's paper enterprises should strengthen the expansion of the Southeast Asian market and reduce dependence on the US market, and China should continue to improve the waste paper recycling system and improve the utilization rate of domestic waste paper.
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У кризним ситуаци)ама, као што je текуки сукоб у Укра]ит, питате учинковитости инпута у полопривредно] производти поста]е врло знача]но. У том контексту, главни цил овограда jeутвр'ивате нивоа ефикасности примене 'убрива у землама Западног Балкана. Истовремено, фокус овог рада je здравле землишта у региону, као и зависност региона од увоза "убрива.. Резултати су показали да je ефикасност 'убрива века у региону него у ЕУ. Ме'утим, с обзиром на високу зависност од увоза и наjвjeроватниje продужете кризе, дати су одре'ени предлози за поболшате ситуацsе. Заклучци овог рада могу бити од користи креаторима полопривредне политике као и полопривредним произво'ачима.Alternate :In the case of the crisis, such as the current conflict in the Ukraine, the question of input effectiveness in agricultural production has become very important. In that context, the main objective of this paper is to find the level of fertiliser efficiency in the Western Balkan countries. The paper also aims to discuss health of the soil in the region and its dependence on fertilisers imports. Results showed that fertilizer use efficiency is higher in the region than in the EU. However, considering the high dependence on imports and the most likely prolongation of the crisis, certain suggestions for improving the situation were given. This conclusion can be useful for the creators of the agricultural policy as well as for agricultural producers.
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The aim of the article is to show the development of the volume and value of natural honey production, its import and export, and prices in Poland against the background of the situation in other countries in the European Union in the years 2000-2020 and as part of market changes globally. The study used the source of information from the FAOSTAT 2022 database. The production of honey in Poland, in other EU countries and around the world was characterized by an upward trend in the analyzed period. The biggest problem is China, which supplies the market with every fourth kilogram of honey product, while the EU accounts for about 13%. In the top thirty producers of natural honey, there are 11 European countries, including 9 from the EU - Poland is in fourth position. Self sufficiency in terms of honey is 60%, which is why the turnover in foreign trade of honey is dynamically increasing in terms of quantity and value. Overall, the honey trade balance in the EU was negative. The structure of honey exports and imports from and to the EU has changed, which is the result of random factors, i.e. the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and various economic, demographic, social and environmental factors.
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This article empirically assessed new opportunities and provides a conceptual justification for promising areas of trade and financial and economic relations between China and Russia amidst ongoing global turbulence, the post-COVID situation, and sanctions pressure. The study utilized the trade gravity model, taking into account the latest trends in the development of the research subject and object, as well as current challenges and trends in the global economy. The study revealed similarities between the political systems, reforms, and policies of China and Russia, with centralized power structures overlapping and supporting each other at international forums such as the UNSC. The findings suggest that both countries plan to increase trade volume in the next two years, with China focusing more on trade and economic development, while Russia works to promote security and political stability. This study provides valuable insights into the economic relationship between Russia and China, its impact on the US and Europe, and highlights the need for effective policy interventions to address the challenges posed by this relationship. It offers significant theoretical and practical contributions, including the potential to unlock the potential of national economies, increase their competitiveness and help states enter a phase of advanced and sustainable development. This article provides several policy recommendations to ensure the long-term sustainability of the economic relationship between Russia and China and foster mutual understanding and trust between their peoples. These include promoting trade diversification, enhancing financial cooperation, addressing trade barriers, strengthening political and security coordination, mitigating negative impacts on other countries, promoting sustainable development, and fostering people-to-people exchanges. © 2023 by the authors.
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This study investigates the risk spillover effect between the exchange rate of importing and exporting oil countries and the oil price. The analysis is supported by the utilization of a set of double-long memories. Thereafter, a multivariate GARCH type model is adopted to analyze the dynamic conditional correlations. Moreover, the Gumbel copula is employed to define the nonlinear structure of dependence and to evaluate the optimal portfolio. The conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) is adopted as a risk measure. Findings indicate a long-run dependence and asymmetry of bidirectional risk spillover among oil price and exchange rate and confirm that the risk spillover intensity is different between the former and the latter. They show that the oil price has a stronger spillover effect in the case of oil exporting countries and the lowest spillover effect in the case of oil importing countries.